“Strength in Numbers” was more than a slogan for the 2015 pre-dynasty Golden State Warriors. It was a philosophy and their ethos.
In hindsight, it was also a myth. It wasn’t about the numbers alone. It was always about the strengths of those numbers. Each member of their ‘benchmob’ complemented the stars and each other.
With Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson on injured reserve, the Carolina Panthers will turn to rookie cornerbacks Will Lee and Akayleb Evans. Those are the numbers. The strengths of those numbers are what Ejiro Evero and the unit will have to lean into tonight as Jared Goff, Jameson Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and the rest of the Detroit Lions pull up to The Bank.
Carolina’s defense may be vulnerable, but so is Detroit’s. At least the Panthers have injuries to explain it. The Lions, on the other hand, can’t explain surrendering 898 passing yards through three games. They also can’t explain allowing 95 points and a third-down completion rate of 56.1%.
The Panthers have a real opportunity to bounce back from Week 3, and I’m looking for these things that will make it happen.
Overcoming O-Line Woes
According to Pro Football Reference, the Panthers’ O-line is ranked 25th in passing block win rate and 11th in run block win rate. Rookie right tackle Monroe Freeling is taking his lumps early on, allowing more pressures than anyone in the NFL, with 14. Left tackle Rasheed Walker’s 13 pressures are tied for the second most in the league. To make matters even worse, Damien Lewis is out.
I’m looking for tweaks as subtle as Bryce Young getting the ball out of his hands in 2.7 seconds or less and as obvious as play-action concepts.
According to Next Gen Stats, Young has been pressured a league-high 57 times, and his pressure rate sits at a staggering 43.5%, which ranks as the second-highest among all qualifying quarterbacks in the league. His average time to throw? 3.02 seconds. His tendency to extend plays out of the pocket factors here.
If Young can limit extending plays and if plays are on script, getting the ball in the air at 2.7 seconds or less is an equalizer for the inconsistencies in the trenches. Panthers offensive coordinator Brad Idzik can make life in Week 4 easier with play-action concepts.
Carolina uses play-action on 29% of snaps, and Young is thriving in it, producing 0.26 EPA per play. It’s tempting for the Panthers to attack a very vulnerable Lions secondary. Ironically, they probably don’t even have to and still win.
Getting Chuba Active
The Lions are currently ranked 22nd in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, giving up 117.3 yards per game. Chuba Hubbard is due to have a solid game, and a porous Detroit defense gives him the right conditions to bounce back. The Lions tend to prioritize rushing upfield to disrupt the quarterback or blow up outside runs. That vertical attack creates opportunities up the middle when defensive tackles over-pressure their assigned gaps.
Idzik could dial up some trap and inside zone concepts since Hubbard’s strength is one-cut running. Hitting the B gap early and often allows Hubbard to use the Lions’ aggressive front against itself.
Security Blanket
Lee and Evans have been thoroughly prepped for Week 4, receiving intel from Evero, defensive passing game coordinator Jonathan Cooley, and even from Jackson. However, the question remains: will all that preparation help them on an island with Williams and Ra St. Brown? They are going to need help.
To protect Lee and Evans from being exposed, Evero cannot afford to take his patented bend-but-don’t-break approach. He could disguise the shell to protect vertical seams. Williams is a potent vertical threat who will put pressure on the corners’ cushions. To counter, Evero could show a single high look before morphing into a cover-2 or a cover-4 shell right at the point of release.
By clouding the deep thirds, Carolina’s safeties absorb the vertical speed of Williams and Ra St. Brown, allowing Lee and Evans to play with trailing, underneath leverage.
Evero could also deploy Tre’von Moehrig as a robber. He has the size and the range to slide into this role or the middle. He can lurk in Goff’s favorite intermediate throwing windows and disrupt the timing on the Lions’ quick slant routes. If Moehrig can effectively bracket the middle, it will take Goff’s release valve away and force him to hold the ball longer to set up pressure for the pass rush.
Panthers Down Lions In Primetime Shootout