The image that the Carolina Panthers’ defense should take from Week 1 to Week 17 is their 4th-and-1 stand from the Bears’ 21-yard line. Not just because they got the stop and went on a string of more. It’s about what that play represented. Chicago felt like they could do whatever they wanted to at The Bank.
They were shredding the Panthers’ front seven with little to no resistance, so they thought they could extend the drive. Without nuance, the play looked like one of those rare moments to go for it. With the nuance and context, the call was disrespectful. The Bears were arrogant enough to think that they could extend the drive, because they couldn’t be stopped. While the Bears were wrong in that moment, they were right otherwise – as they hung 59 points and 552 net yards on a Panthers’ defense full of expectations.
The Panthers have a chance to redeem themselves as they hit 85 South to Atlanta to take on the Falcons, and here’s what I’m looking for in this divisional matchup.
Young’s Dominance
Over the last two seasons, Bryce Young seemed to have found the blueprint to pick apart Atlanta’s defense. In Week 11, Young set a franchise record for most yards thrown in a regular-season game (448) against them. In those two games last season he completed 47 of 69 passes for 569 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions for a 68.1 completion rate and a 107.7 passing rating.
When I look at that performance and others, I wonder, what is it about the Falcons’ defense that Young can consistently exploit? I look back at recent games and notice how vulnerable the Falcons’ middle-of-the-field coverage is.
If Atlanta shows two high safeties, Young theoretically gets useful pre-snap intel. Carolina then attacks using motion and play action concepts. If the midfield remains exposed, look for Young to find Darren Waller early and often. Given Waller’s size and speed, the Falcons have to account for the mismatches.
Stopping The Run
Chicago ran for nearly 300 yards in week one, because DeAndre Swift and Kyle Monangai consistently found room attacking the right side of Carolina’s defense. That is a problem that Atlanta can exploit with Bijan Robinson. Princely Umanmielen’s strength is in his ability to rush the passer. However, against the Bears the Panthers needed more from him as a run defender, particularly setting the edge and containing. Since Umanmielen will have an increased role in the Panthers’ defense, I will be looking for these two things not only for this game but throughout the season.
With their uncertainty at quarterback, the Falcons will lean on Bijan Robinson and dare Carolina to stop the run. If Pat Jones returns his presence could help stabilize the rotation at the edge, but the Panthers still have to prove they can win at the point of attack, maintain the gaps, and keep Robinson from going crazy.
Applying Meaningful Pressure
In week one, Carolina’s defense blitzed Caleb Williams on 51.3% of his dropbacks and got little for it, with an actual pressure rate of 16.1%. Part of it is Williams’ escapability and athleticism extending plays. Another part of it is a lack of execution. Carolina’s defense generated pressure, but it didn’t translate into execution. In week 2, my focus will be on the rush. How many guys will the Panthers send to rush, and will the rush maintain contain? Does Cooper Rush or Michael Penix, Jr. have escape lanes? Does the coverage hold long enough for the rush to arrive? If Carolina can answer those questions like this: ‘We are sending five to rush, and yes, we are containing whoever the Falcons’ QB is”, then it should be a win.