The NBA is down to its final four teams. In the East Conference Finals, the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics will meet for the second time in three seasons. These are two teams that hang their hat on defense and have depth. Expect a tough, grind it out series between those two squads. Out West, the Golden State Warriors outlasted a young hungry Memphis Grizzlies team in the semifinals while the Dallas Mavericks shocked the Suns – beating them in seven games. Luka Doncic vs Steph Curry will be must-watch TV. The Warriors looked very shaky at times against the Grizzlies. Will they be on top of their game? If the Warriors are shaky, can Luka and Dallas take advantage where a young Memphis team struggled? Let’s break down both series and make predictions.
Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat:
Which team can find mismatches:
Both the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat switch on defense at a high rate. During the playoffs the Celtics have switched on 55% of ball screens, while the Miami Heat have switched on 40% of ball screens. Which team can hunt favorable matchups and exploit them? Boston was first in defensive rating during the regular season and is third so far this postseason, while Miami was fourth in defensive rating during the regular season and second during the postseason. Jaylen Brown will have to exploit favorable matchups when they present themselves as the Heat will probably start off with Jimmy Butler on Jayson Tatum.
Which team will win the three point line?:
When you have two defensive minded teams being able to make shots is essential to space the floor and create driving lanes. Miami is ranked 13th out of the 16 playoff teams in three-point field goal percentage – shooting 32%. Miami shoots 37% from three at home, but only about 27% from three on the road. The Heat are obviously more comfortable at home than on the road, but they haven’t played a team like Boston this postseason. The Celtics are ranked 6th in three-point field goal percentage this postseason – shooting 37% while having more even shooting splits between home and road games with 38% at Boston 35% away.
Jayson Tatum vs Jimmy Butler:
Jayson Tatum outplayed Kevin Durant in the first round, and in a crucial game six against the Bucks went point-for-point against Giannis Antetokounmpo with a 46-point masterpiece in an elimination game. Now Tatum will go up against Jimmy Butler, who has quietly been one of the best players in this post season. After a tough playoff in 2021, Butler has rebounded by averaging 28.7 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 5.4 assists per game this postseason, but he hasn’t faced a team that can scheme up a defense like Ime Udoka’s Celtics can. Eric Spoelstra will also have schemes cooked up for Tatum. Which team’s star player can adjust to what is being thrown at them will be a key factor in this matchup.
Prediction: Boston in 6
Miami hasn’t seen a team that can present the problems defensively that Boston can. The Celtics’ defense gave Kevin Durant fits, and at times did the same to Giannis. Boston’s defense will be locked in on Jimmy Butler. Miami’s drastic shooting splits from three between home and the road is concerning. Boston won twice on the road against the Bucks and their shooting splits are steadier than Miami. The Celtics will beat the Heat in six hard-fought games.
Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors:
Can Spencer Dinwiddie build off his breakout game seven?:
Spencer Dinwiddie struggled much of the Mavericks’ series versus the Suns, but broke out in a big way in game seven. Dinwiddie scored 30 points after averaging just 11.8 points on 36% shooting through the first six games. The Mavericks brought Dinwiddie in to break down defenses as a primary or secondary playmaker to take pressure off star Luka Doncic. The Mavericks will need both Dinwiddie and Jalen Brunson to be on the top of their games as the Warriors’ defense keys in on Doncic. Dorian Finney-Smith will also have to make open shots when they present themselves.
Can the Warriors play with consistency?:
At times versus the Memphis Grizzlies, the Golden State Warriors looked very beatable. Despite winning game four, the Warriors shot just 24% from three and then got the doors blown off of them in game five. Game-six Klay Thompson returned to help close out the Grizzlies and the Warriors will need him to be consistent in this series. Klay can’t force the issue, instead he has to let the game come to him naturally. Steph Curry is shooting just 36% from three, which would be fine for many players in the league, but you expect more from Steph. Can Curry get his three-point percentage closer to 40% this series against Jason Kidd’s defense? Golden State also must limit the sloppy turnovers. The Warriors will have to show patience as Dallas plays at one of the slower paces in the NBA.
Can Luka rise to the occasion, again?:
It’s only his third postseason, but it’s safe to say Luka loves the big stage. In fact, Doncic is second all-time in points per game in the playoffs at 32.7, trailing only Michael Jordan who averaged 33.5 points a game in the playoffs. Doncic can’t get sped up, plays on the perimeter or inside, and is a killer. He has also grabbed 10 rebounds and dished out almost seven assists per game this post season. Expect to see Draymond Green, Otto Porter, Andrew Wiggins, Johnathan Kuminga, Klay Thompson and Kevon Looney match up against Luke when he switches on pick-n-rolls – all trying to slow him down. If the Warriors have an off night like they did in game four vs Memphis, Doncic will finish the deal where Memphis, without Ja Morant, couldn’t.
Prediction: Warriors in 6
While Luka will do everything in his power to get to the NBA Finals, Steph Curry is a different animal than what the Mavs saw in the previous round. I think the Warriors will play with more consistency and the championship experience that Steph, Klay, and Draymond have will push the Warriors over the top when it’s time to rise to the occasion. This league will be Luka’s soon, but right now it’s just not his time to advance to The Finals. Golden State will win in 6 games in a fun series with some of the league’s brightest stars.
