This season hasn’t gone the way many UNC fans have hoped for. The Tar Heels are currently at 16-7 (8-4 in the ACC) and tied for fourth place in the league. The problem is that when UNC plays good competition they’ve lost, and lost big. Outside of a nine-point defeat to 4th ranked Purdue, UNC has a loss to #22 Tennessee by 17, #5 Kentucky by 29, Miami by 28, Wake Forest by 22, and most recently, a 20-point loss to their arch nemesis Duke. All of these teams are currently projected to make the NCAA Tournament, according to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology. What are some reasons for UNC’s troubles this season? Let’s break down a few:
1. Inconsistent Guard Play:
A Carolina basketball team is only as good as its guard play. When looking at the great UNC teams you’ll find point guards who consistently play Carolina’s brand of basketball – smart, athletic, fast-paced and effective in transition. When UNC has struggled this season, it can be tied directly to guard play. In their most recent loss to Duke, Caleb Love was 3-10 from the floor and RJ Davis was 4-11. They shot a combined shot 1-8 from behind the three-point line. Love also struggled last week in a win against Louisville, going 3-18 from the floor. In losses to Miami and Wake Forest Love was 2-12 and 3-15 from the floor. When Caleb Love plays well UNC usually wins, when he doesn’t play well they struggle. Other issues at the guard position are that Anthony Harris only appeared in 14 games, before being ruled academically ineligible for the rest of the season, and Kerwin Walton has been a mystery. After ending the season strong last year, Walton has had less production this year – limiting his time on the floor. Walton is only shooting 34% from the floor and 33% from behind the arc. Last season Walton shot 40% from three.
2. Lack of Depth:
Without Dawson Garcia UNC doesn’t have a lot of depth in the front court. Armando Bacot and Brady Manek have had to carry a heavy load. Armando is having an All-ACC caliber season, averaging 16 points and 12 rebounds a game. Manek is having a solid season as well, averaging 14 points and 6 rebounds while shooting 40% from three. Outside of these two the Tar Heels’ front court is thin. Justin McKoy and Dontrez Styles have seen limited action this season. UNC is heavily reliant on two players to produce along their front line. Outside of Leaky Black, North Carolina is also thin on the wing. Puff Johnson has only appeared in eight games this season – averaging about eight minutes a game – and D’Marco Dunn has only averaged four minutes a game in the 16 games he has played in.
3. Handling of Freshmen
Many people have questioned the role of freshmen D’Marco Dunn and Dontrez Styles. Both players have seen limited action this season, including contests where the game was out of reach. Those outings could have been an opportunity to let the young guys get live game experience and build their confidence – allowing them to grow and play a larger role later in the season. UNC doesn’t have much depth, so the opportunities they had earlier in the season to give those guys minutes could have helped now.
The good news is that the Tar Heels have a couple of opportunities to strengthen their resume for March, but the margin for error is razor thin.